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A mere 60 days in the past when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him for missing a through-ball. At that point, with the team endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if his displays were an indicator or the source of Villa's wider issues.

“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”

In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was decidedly more positive. As Rogers curled home his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the boss ripped off his jacket, spread his arms and shouted in triumph. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win , after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit just three points off the leaders Arsenal.

Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?

It remains a particularly tough proposition to resolve. History, a general sense of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they have not been completely commanding in many games, even as the positive results have accumulated.

As per the data, on just two occasions has the team posted an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a team which has just won 10 in a row, Villa seem weirdly vulnerable – however at the moment the tight outcomes are swinging for them.

The Rogers Recipe

The current approach looks like to trade blows with an opponent before hoping Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. It happened against Leeds, it transpired in London, and again versus United.

The initial strike stemmed from a superb shot, curled just inside the upright from the corner of the box. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.

“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”

Can It Last?

Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those fixtures.

Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football into the top corner week in, week out.

Reasons for Optimism

Perhaps there is an alternative path in which, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players could still return to peak condition.

• Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
• The attacking talent may rediscover the performer he was during his peak.
• The injured centre-backs will eventually come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.

Maybe within that lies the possibility of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on a single individual.

Enjoying the Ride

Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable the team would sit in the top three for the holidays. And without a doubt back in October, few could imagine the young forward now would be leading a hunt for the title while looking like a crucial player for the national team.

The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.